Predictive Model of Suicide Risk in Young People: The Mediating Role of Alcohol Consumption.

Suicidal behavior is one of the public health problems that cause most deaths in young people and has been associated with emotional and affective problems, so predictive models are required to account for the relationship between depression, anxiety, hopelessness, and alcohol consumption to propose actions for its prevention. The Plutchik Suicide Risk Scale, the CAGE Questionnaire, the Hopelessness Scale, the Depression Inventory and the Beck Anxiety Scale were applied. A total of 1.379 young people (M = 20.45; SD = 3.23) from the cities of Manizales (n = 739; 53.6%) and Medellín (n = 640; 46.5%) in Colombia were evaluated. The variables of anxiety, hopelessness and depression explained 51% (R2 = 0.509; 95% CI = 0.467-0.552; p = 0.001) of the variation in suicidal risk. Likewise, alcohol consumption is a mediating variable between depression and anxiety in the prediction of suicidal risk, whose total, direct and indirect effects are statistically significant. The findings support the role of alcohol consumption as a mediating variable between anxiety, depression, hopelessness and suicidal risk in young people, given the difficulties it causes in information processing, regulation of emotions and therefore in having an adequate coping with the demands of the environment. This justifies the importance of directing suicide prevention actions through strategies for the reduction of alcohol consumption and the management of emotions in young people. HIGHLIGHTSAlcohol modulates the effect of depression and anxiety on suicide riskThis is a study on the risk of suicide in young people in ColombiaThe findings have implications for timely clinical interventions.

Predictores psicológicos del riesgo suicida en estudiantes universitarios / No disponible

Este trabajo muestra los factores de riesgo y predictores psicológicos asociados a la conducta suicida en estudiantes universitarios en Manizales y Medellín (Colombia). Participaron 1408 estudiantes y se utilizaron las escalas de riesgo suicida de Plutchik, desesperanza y depresión de Beck e impulsividad de Barratt. Se encontró un factor de riesgo suicida del 23,2%. El análisis de regresión binaria muestra que la depresión (OR = 1,2), impulsividad (OR = 1,04), desesperanza (OR = 1,1), intento de suicidio (OR = 31,5), enfermedad mental e intento de suicidio en la familia (OR = 2,2; OR = 2,1) explican entre el 41% y el 62% de la varianza del riesgo suicida. Mediante el análisis de modelado de ecuaciones estructurales se establecieron tres modelos explicativos que muestran que la enfermedad mental e intento de suicidio en la familia (modelo 1), impulsividad (modelo 2) y antecedentes de intento de suicidio por parte del estudiante (modelo 3) son variables mediadoras del riesgo suicida. El mayor efecto total se produjo en el modelo 3, que explica en un 62,7% la variación del riesgo suicida

This work shows the risk factors and psychological predictors associated with suicidal behavior in university students in Manizales and Medellín (Colombia). The sample comprised 1408 students. Plutchik's suicide risk, Beck's despair and depression and Barratt impulsivity scales were used. A suicide risk factor of 23.2% was found. Binary regression analysis shows that depression (OR = 1.2), impulsivity (OR = 1.04), hopelessness (OR = 1.1), suicide attempt (OR = 31.5), mental illness and family suicide attempt (OR = 2.2, OR = 2.1) explain between 41% and 62% of the variance of suicide risk. Through a structural equation modeling analysis, three explanatory models were established that show mental illness and suicide attempt in the family (model 1), impulsivity (model 2), and a history of suicide attempt by the student (model 3) are suicide mediating variables. The greatest total effect occurred in model 3, which explains 62.7% of the variation in suicide risk